This time of the footy year, it’s all about making it to the finals. And as long as your team makes it to September it has a chance, even if it’s limping into eighth – win every game that month, and the premiership is yours.

That’s the promise, but not the probability. Both big footy codes have had the eight-team finals for two decades – AFL since 1994, rugby league since 1995 – and the record is pretty plain. Champions come from the top three, and if you’re outside the top three, enjoy having made the finals as an achievement in itself.

In the eight-team finals era, there’s been only the one AFL flag-winner from fourth, and one from fifth – and it happened to be largely the same team, Malcolm Blight’s Ocean’s Eleven-like Adelaide of ’97-’98. It bears remembering that the Crows pulled off their heists under the old McIntyre system; in ’98, they lost the first week of the finals.

The NRL has had three winners from the fourth spot, and one from sixth – that happened to be the very first eight-team league finals, as Canterbury made a remarkable run. Generally, there’s a greater parity across the NRL postseason, in at least making it to the GF (if not winning it): where only one sixth-place AFL side has made the ultimate game (Carlton in ’99), the league has had losing grand finalists emerge from sixth on three occasions, seventh twice and even from a side limping to eighth.

So keep an eye on those ladder spots down the stretch. Interestingly, in 2015, we had third-place premiers in both codes. Hawthorn is shaping up for its shot at an incredible four-in-a-row; North Queensland’s defence of its title is in an interesting state, as holding onto third behind Cronulla and Melbourne could prove crucial.