There’s a neat theory, popularised by football writer Rohan Connolly, that the top eight is settled after a surprisingly small sample of seven matches – thus the round seven rule. Since 2002, the composition of the finals changed by more than one team after round seven only once. In five of the last six years, including last season, there’s been no change at all.

Bunches of September-starved Tigers and Saints fans are surely taking heart. As solid as the round seven rule may seem, it was hard to be convinced after the events of last weekend, aka the round of tipping carnage, when the nine lower-ranked sides of the ladder each won.

It was fodder for those advocating that parity is working its way back in the AFL; those who would dispute a determinism based of 7/22nds of a season could point to those surprise results, and cling to a lot of season remaining.

There’s a caveat worth pointing out: the seven-match sample is useful for identifying the finals sides, but it won’t tell you the order. By round seven in 2016, North Melbourne was on top and unbeaten, and made it to nine games unbeaten.

Jack Ziebell exults in North Melbourne's upset of the Crows.

The Kangaroos went 3-10 the rest of the way – but did sneak in as the eighth-place team, edging St Kilda on percentage. Interestingly, the Western Bulldogs were in sixth after seven rounds, and were seventh by the end.

Looking back on the contrasting course of that season, Roos star Jack Ziebell posited that footy teams get caught between trying to self-correct and not to over-react: “In-season, it’s more about the week-to-week grind of footy. Winning or losing has more of an impact on your weeks, obviously – that’s what we’re here to do, to win it. When things don’t go right, you try and right the ship and get it going where you want to go.

“It’s a long year. And we found that out last year – you win nine in a row to start the year, then lose a few games at the back end of the year. It was a tale of two halves.”

The Kangaroos had been languishing at 1-5 this season before a stunning upset of unbeaten league leaders Adelaide last weekend. Ziebell and company could tell the Crows plenty about their approach to the rest of the season.

“You try and keep it as much the same as possible. With the processes you go through each week, not much changes whether you win or lose. You try and get better each week no matter what. But subconsciously, a little bit, when you start losing few in a row, it can be hard to change at times.”