In summary

  • Lando Norris has won back-to-back races at the Hungaroring and Zandvoort and signed a McLaren deal running until the end of 2030.
  • Monza has been declared a Heat Hazard, requiring teams to fit a Driver Cooling System or add equivalent ballast amid low-to-mid 30s temperatures.
  • Kimi Antonelli faces a grid penalty for a power unit change at his home race, starting from the back at Monza.

The return of Norris and McLaren?

The 2025 world champion made it back-to-back wins for the first time since last season with wins at the Hungaroring and Zandvoort. He’s since signed a deal to extend his time at McLaren until the end of the 2030 season. Norris will now pass the 10-year mark at McLaren and will have turned 31 at the expiration of his contract, and so the deal is likely to be his last long-term contract in the sport.

His two recent, and somewhat surprising, victories point to a return to his brilliant form from last year, and a possible resurgence for McLaren over the remainder of the season. The team’s newly introduced upgrades are clearly paying dividends, and Norris will be confident he’s got every chance of making it three-straight wins at Monza. If it happens, the whole complexion of this year's championship will have changed in the space of one race.

 

Hot times in Italy

With high temperatures expected for the Italian Grand Prix this weekend, the FIA has declared Monza a Heat Hazard, requiring teams to fit a ‘Driver Cooling System’. The regulations and systems were introduced following the events of the 2023 Qatar Grand Prix, when Logan Sargeant, already weakened by illness, retired on lap 40 due to dehydration, the extreme heat causing Sargeant and Williams team-mate Alex Albon to seek medical treatment.

While drivers can opt out of wearing this equipment, teams must add equivalent ballast to avoid a weight-reduction advantage. Temperatures are predicted to be in the low-to-mid 30s come the weekend, with the Italian Grand Prix joining the Austrian Grand Prix as the only two races with this declaration in the 2026 season.

Antonelli drop-off?

Having won five of the first six races this season for Mercedes, Kimi Antonelli has gone on to win only one of the next six races following Monaco, with that success coming in Belgium. The drop-off in form has potentially opened the door for the few drivers within touching distance to work their way back into the drivers’ championship. The opportunity is there for George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, with each of them trailing Antonelli by 59 points heading into the last few months of the season.

Antonelli himself recognises the decline in performance and the rise of surrounding cars. “We’re clearly not the fastest car anymore,” he said, pointing to Ferrari and McLaren overtaking Mercedes. Whether Antonelli’s pessimism is really justifiable remains to be seen, but Monza will provide more clues as to the relative competitiveness of Mercedes’ challengers.

But it’s shaping up as a difficult weekend for Antonelli at his home race as he prepares to take a grid penalty, starting from the back of the pack due to Mercedes changing his power unit. History isn't on his side this weekend: no driver has ever won at Monza from the back of the grid, with Peter Gethin’s victory from 11th in 1971 remaining the lowest starting position for a race winner.

Ferrari’s home race opportunity on 30th anniversary

Thirty years after Michael Schumacher won at Monza in his first season for the Scuderia, Ferrari has an opportunity to pay homage to the legend with a win for their home fans. With the aforementioned drivers’ championship leader facing a grid penalty, Ferrari theoretically have one less front-running competitor to worry about in Italy.

But the task won’t be so simple, as Ferrari has had varying success with strategic decision-making during the season. However, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc’s wins at Barcelona and Silverstone respectively suggest Ferrari has the race pace to compete. The Prancing Horse will look to utilise its consistent upgrades to capitalise on the opportunity, making further improvements to their engine after Zandvoort. This is a factor that could be especially significant on a track like Monza that prioritises top speed across its long straights.

Whether Ferrari will be able to deliver a home win at Monza this weekend is yet to be seen, but if hone crowd advantage counts for anything, they'll have the Tifosi cheering them on to victory.

Hadjar’s return delayed

Having injured his wrist during the summer break prior to the Dutch Grand Prix, Isaac Hadjar had his sights set on a return for Monza. However, that return will have to wait, as Red Bull has confirmed Liam Lawson will once again take Hadjar’s seat for the Italian Grand Prix. Lawson impressed his parent team at Zandvoort, placing seventh, picking up six points for Red Bull and possibly regaining a trust that was lost over a year ago.

Lawson was dropped by Red Bull after only two races in 2025, with the current opportunity surely seen as an avenue to work his way back into Red Bull’s second seat for 2027, given that Hadjar is yet to be confirmed for next season. Hadjar’s absence also means that Arvid Lindblad will be joined by Yuki Tsunoda at Racing Bulls once more.

Qualifying for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix starts at 12:00am AEST on Sunday morning. The race starts at 11:00pm AEST on Sunday evening.