Every preseason, the mass of chatter fashions a rough consensus – this year, the pundits have GWS taking the next step. But in the aftermath of the Western Bulldogs’ improbable premiership, some intellectual modesty is in order when it comes to AFL forecasts.

Former Hawthorn premiership player turned Fox Footy commentator Brian Lake makes a good point on why trying to gauge the season ahead is more difficult than it used to be. According to Lake, the nature of player movement via the draft and free agency has significant effects on a team’s character from year to year.

Many teams will take time to settle during the season, and Lake points to his Hawks – which went through one of the offseason’s most significant makeovers as stalwarts Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis went out, to be replaced by Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell and Ty Vickery – as a prime example.

Lake cited his own experience when he came to Hawthorn from the Western Bulldogs. “Trying to build an understanding with new team-mates was difficult,” he said. “When opposition pressure came or I made a few errors, I immediately found myself reverting to what I had done for so long at the Dogs, rather than what I was being told to do with the Hawks.

“I took me so long to settle throughout 2013 that Sam Mitchell even said, after the season, my only good game for the year came in the grand final.”

Fortunately for Lake, that one good game earned him a Norm Smith Medal. But he also noted that younger players were given better support when they changed teams these days – the main question was how they deal with expectations, pointing to O’Meara and Mitchell, both 23, as examples.

“They will be charged with the responsibility of keeping the Hawks at the top of the ladder, while trying to gel with new team-mates,” Lake said. “How quickly they do that is hard to predict.”