AFL Pigskin Review

Who'll raise the premiership silverware this season? Read and learn.

“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” – Schopenhauer

Sydney Swans celebrate winning the 2012 AFL Premiership. Image: Getty Images

Now the fact football teams throw matches has completed Schopenhauer’s journey and finally arrived as self-evident truth, AFL fans, and fans of sport, have good reason to ensure that any other matter affecting the integrity of their sport is investigated fearlessly.

But it’s easier said than done. The issue would first need to be identified, and therein lies the problem. You see, every story is like a mansion of many rooms. Most are open for inspection. Some of the more established mansions are mostly accessible, except for one forbidden room. Its door has a sign: “Warning. Do not open. Anyone entering here does so at great risk.” Even the most resolute of investigators will explore every corner of every other room, reporting their contents with intrepidity and a tough “I won’t be silenced” posture. But they know better than to open the forbidden door. Behind that door is not the issue at hand as it’s defined for us, but the reality, and the reasons for it.

For a long time, “tanking” was behind that door. No one could mention it as a possibility, and even when anyone noted that, with its automatic priority pick system, the AFL was tempting teams to throw games, they were met with the same incensed denial afforded anyone who notes, above their breath, the presence of any tea-party crashing pachyderm in the parlour. Then, courtesy of ex-Melbourne player Brock McLean, who alleged that the possibility of deliberately losing matches for the sake of priority picks was more than merely discussed at Melbourne, the tanking issue poked its head out and took its journey down the hallway. Others at Melbourne have since “rolled over” (don’t you love the way those phrases take hold? It’s almost as though all news comes from the same source). As I write, the Melbourne club is under investigation.

All the AFL was ever asked to do by right-thinking people concerned for the authenticity of their sport as a spectacle, with non-enhanced people competing on equal terms and a score at the end that reflects what really went on, was to remove the temptation. Instead, those people were forced to pay good money to watch a stew cooked before their eyes, as they shared stands with a new type of spectator: the fan who was turning up to matches in the hope of watching their team lose! That’s damage. When such fundamental harm is done to a sport, surely its ruling body has some obligation of stewardship to change it. Why is it that no one wanted to point this out?

Before the media became “enlightened” by “revelations” concerning Melbourne football club, why did they seem to mobilise every means to prevent the public exploring the possibility that it might be happening? Why did they marshal incredulity that anyone would even suggest such a thing; assemble old myths-to-live-by, like the claim that all AFL teams, no matter the circumstance, play only to win, all the time, or that such tactics would cause a “losing culture” to develop, and no club would put up with that? I can still hear them. It went on for a long time, after all. Actually, it went on for an outrageously long time. The media consists of many people with first-class analysis skills. Did they just miss the point, or deftly sidestep it, just at the very time it needed to be nailed? When we were faced with the real possibility of a final season game featuring a team or teams playing for the prized wooden spoon, and a priority pick or two was dependent on retaining last place, in front of a crowd peppered with supporters who, I repeat, actually came to see their team lose, were we, too, supposed to suspend all disbelief, not to mention anger? Faced with that prospect, were we supposed to feign consternation along with everyone else when that forward missed an open goal because he dropped it onto his boot the wrong way, knowing very well that if he kicked that goal, he might just quietly have been dropped onto the end of someone else’s boot? Were we supposed to take those astute analyses of the match on face value, as though it was real? Why did rat-smelling callers often get short shrift or sage doubt from media personalities?

But not now! Now our intrepid reporters are using their much-lauded investigative skills to retrospectively question the outcome of games played seven years ago and the moves that led to those outcomes. Because, you see, it didn’t create that “losing culture” at all clubs. Some played it very well – why wouldn’t they? – and premierships resulted, it seems. Now, bizarre selections, prolific youngster-blooding, sudden changes in rotation practice and positional movements, strategic “resting” of senior players – all of which coincided heavily with team ladder position – are all being noted as having coincided heavily with team ladder position.

So lay off Melbourne football club. They are already the Job of the AFL. Anyone who points the finger at any specific club in the wake of these “revelations” is guilty only of biased scapegoating. Why do you think the clubs themselves have little to say on the matter? Now that someone has finally come out with the unsayable, the press want to say it even louder and bolder, trampling each other in the race to be indignant. Now, apparently, it’s okay for us all to take the lid off. Now we’re allowed to fume at the damage the system has caused the game, and watch Melbourne burn.

The press has fooled not one stubbornly two-eyed fan by ante-dating its outrage. When they had the opportunity to discuss it openly, they aggressively scotched that discussion. Andrew Demetriou was still doing it, up until the AFL decided to investigate McLean’s allegations more fully. As recently as August, Demetriou casually dismissed the possibility of debate, stating that “tanking” is non-existent. Andrew’s been great for the game, but yawning in our faces while people like his “integrity officer” take frantic action behind closed doors fools no one.

Automatic priority picks have since been abolished.

Let’s see what other forbidden ideas take a similar journey. You’ll note, for example, that the matter of performance-enhancing drugs is never up for discussion. It still lurks behind the door. Have you ever noticed why it’s never up for discussion, let alone investigation? Because it has a near-identical twin: the self-evident truth that AFL players take social drugs. This twin is on permanent display in one of the accessible rooms. We’re allowed to talk about it all day. Any sport-loving member of the public knows that these twins are essentially profoundly different. One is an urgent social desideratum; the other is a monstrous scandal that affects the game, its “brand” and the public on many levels. Try to bring the latter out from behind its forbidden door and hear those myths-to-live-by. And I’m not even accusing anyone of taking them. I’m talking about mere mention of the possibility. I can hear them now: “Our sport doesn’t lend itself to performance-enhancing drugs”; “Our players get tested more than anyone”; “What about all those busts for recreational drugs over the last few years? That shows we’re on the ball”; “Our game has always been clean”; “We are in the post-drug-cheat era.”

1. HAWTHORN

The Hawks are too good to ignore. Brian Lake might prove a masterstroke – a one-off recruitment that might prove the difference in a premiership year, as did Stewie Dew in 2008. But not many players are the same after horrendous knee problems, and it’s yet to be seen whether Lake retains the lateral movement and quickness that made him Franklin’s nemesis for so long. In 2011, they were shocked when Collingwood got off the canvas, and last year, they went a step further only to be shocked again by the Swans’ stinging counters. The Hawks will be a hardened, wiser outfit. The club has ruck depth. New recruit, the monstrous Jonathon Ceglar, proved talented around the ground and in the ruck when he was with Collingwood’s VFL side. In fact, they have depth just about everywhere now, to go with breadth and talent. Their hardy, intelligent midfield, led by Mitchell and Hodge, is difficult to dominate. Barring injuries or issues, they will be hard to beat.

Brian Lake may just prove a masterstroke for Hawthorn. Image: Getty Images

2. SYDNEY

Their "mysterious" culture will get them there again. This might be another competitive season, with no one dominating. Sydney will thrive in such an environment. Not for nothing have they featured in three of history’s cliff-hanger grand finals in just the last seven years. Players like Roberts-Thomson, Bolton, O’Keefe and Morton might have been rejected by other clubs, but in the Sydney context, they have proved indispensable. Goodes might be in decline, but he proved that, surrounded by determined men unwilling to waste opportunities, he can even play out a season on one leg. Youngsters like Johnson and Jetta have been infected by the magic, and now they’ve tasted a premiership they’ll find it addictive. The controversial and sometimes unstoppable Tippett should fit neatly, once he takes the field after his 12-week suspension for his part in the alleged salary cap beaches. They have outside runners and redoubtable defensive pressure. They have the players and attitude to ensure that competitiveness, accuracy and resilience will win. Hawthorn is the head-pick, but the heart craves another Swans premiership.

Sydney Swans celebrate winning the 2012 AFL Premiership. Image: Getty Images

3. COLLINGWOOD

It’s far too early to write off this side. They could easily pull a premiership out of their proverbials in a competitive season. As last season wore on, Buckley’s coaching objectives became clear. New ruckman Ben Hudson is an energetic, aggressive big man who may compensate for the need to manage Jolly. The journeyman’s role is primarily ruck coach, but we get the feeling Buckley will be keeping him fit and ready as back-up. The loss of Dawes and Wellingham was a blow, but thanks to free agency, they acquired Quentin Lynch from the Eagles and Hawthorn’s Clinton Young. Jordan Russell should be some recompense for the retirement of Tarrant. The Pies have recruited talented rookies capable of slotting straight into senior positions if required. Hopefully, this year, Cloke can take more of those dominating contested marks and convert them to majors. If so, the Pies might wind up anywhere. Cloke will be fed by that voracious, perpetual-motion midfield. If time hasn’t tripped talent, the Pies might be in a better position than they were in 2012.

It's too early to write-off Travis Cloke and his Pies, who can fight their way out of any situation.

4. WEST COAST

They surprised many last year. The Eagles’ best is worthy of finals consideration. LeCras will be back, and his presence will compensate for the loss of Lynch. They did well with an injury-afflicted list in 2012. The addition of Wellingham will have an immediate midfield impact. During last year’s finals series, the Cox-Naitanui combination looked positively scary at times, and this finals series they won’t be any smaller, or less talented.

The Eagles' Dean Cox-Nic Naitanui combo can be scarily effective at times. Image: Getty Images

5. ADELAIDE

The Crows made everyone take notice last year. Apart from Sydney’s win, they were the year’s biggest surprise, finishing second on the ladder and just losing their final to Hawthorn. Coach Sanderson has done a remarkable job in a short time. There’s no ignoring 17 wins and stellar seasons by Thompson and Dangerfield, ably backed by Riley, Walker and Jacobs. They’ll start fit, and Sanderson has given the team that "Sydney" feel. He gets it, and they’ll get finals footy.

6. FREMANTLE

Nor is there any ignoring what Ross Lyon has done. They were crippled by injury, yet Lyon quickly imposed his system so it didn’t matter. They won 14, and played finals. A fit Sandilands should dominate the scenery as any garden-variety Godzilla might, Morabito might be back, if his recent recurrence of a knee injury is not as bad as first thought, and Crowley will be in top form. Danyle Pearce from Port is a good get. Pavlich still doesn’t have that twilight feeling and is raring to go. Everyone (except St Kilda fans and, maybe, Mark Harvey) liked what they saw of the Dockers in 2012.  A definite finals contender. If nothing else, the Western derby will be a cracker.

7. GEELONG

Geelong didn’t fall too far. The legendary Scarlett has retired, as has Wojcinski, and they have bled talent in recent years, but they still have a powerful playing group and remain a dangerous contender. With the "Tomahawk" and the "Pod" up front, and Lonergan up back – all of whom have busted out and form a dynamic midfield with guts and run – they can still pressurise and punish any side. A top-four position would not surprise. After that – who knows, with the Cats?

8. RICHMOND

All the Tigers need to do is turn those heartbreakingly close losing margins around and they’ll be playing finals. Cotchin and the surprising Maric will again feature. Add Deledio and Martin and they have plenty of star quality. Riewoldt should start fit. They have good balance and the sort of gritty bottom six to be expected under the coaching of a man like Hardwick, who wouldn’t hear of taking passengers.

9. CARLTON

A perfect mix of youth and experience – the sort of mix new coach Mick could have great success with. Betts, Kreuzer, Waite, Carrazzo and Simpson are all entering the final third of their careers in fine form. Judd has relinquished the captaincy to concentrate on his own form – a daunting prospect. He has noticeably run out of steam in the last couple of seasons. Who can blame him? The fact that he didn’t win their B&F yet again is probably testimony to his decline rather than Heath Scotland’s ascendancy. However, the Blues, injury free, might finish higher this year. There may be some teething problems as the team and Mick adapt to each other, but they might also come together very quickly, and if they do, they’ll rattle some this season.

Heath Scotland's on-field-rise has coincided with Chris Judd's fall in form. Image: Getty Images

10. ESSENDON

Last year’s dramatic fall from form after a brilliant first half-season was due to sheer physical rigour. Their fatigue was visible. The brand of football they played until that time was impressive. They have instituted a training regime designed to manage soft tissues better, and Brendon Goddard was an enormously good get. Watch them.

11. ST KILDA

Goddard was a vital organ. They lost more than a star player. When all else failed, Goddard kicked in with more and imposed his expectations. Saints are being nicely coached now by Watters, but he inherits a group of stars in their climacteric. Riewoldt, Milne, Montagna, Koschitzke,

Dal Santo and Hayes are all still playing well, but the drop might be sudden

and the question is whether they have enough experienced youngsters to

smooth the transition. Mid-rangers like Gwilt and Fisher need to proceed to the next level immediately.

12. NORTH MELBOURNE

The Roos made the finals last year and were demolished by the Eagles. But they got there after a faltering start to the season. The indomitable Harvey had a good year, as did Swallow and Wells. Bastinac, Petrie, Goldstein and Thompson all gained steam. They have since lost McIntosh and Edwards, which hurt, as they don’t have a lot of depth. The most hyped rookie in history, Majak Daw, has finally been promoted, but they can’t rely on that. They still have punch and plenty of ringcraft.

13. MELBOURNE

I’d hate to see coach Mark Neeld cop it in the neck for this. However, if they can overcome a multitude of off-field issues, the Demons might do better after a horrendous 2012. Youngsters like Grimes and Watts are already being looked to as leaders. Neeld extracted the best from Watts after moving him up back, Nathan Jones had a great 2012 and lively forward Mitch Clark is back from injury. They’ve turned over some personnel, and will feel the loss of Jurrah, Bates and Green, but Dawes and Byrnes are very good, targeted acquisitions. David Rodan’s knee is, hopefully, not so shot that it will prevent him being of use.

The Demons are hoping Nathan Jones repeats his superb 2012. Image: Getty Images

14. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Rebuilding. They were cannon fodder in 2012, and lucky GC and GWS were below them. They’ve lost one of their only true stars in Lake. Coach Brendan McCartney is on a long road.

15. BRISBANE

They unearthed some nice talent last year and ended up on ten wins, six more than 2011. Though they have a balance of youth and experience, they probably have a little too much weight at either end right now.

16. PORT ADELAIDE

We can only hope that Port gets off to a great start under new coach Hinkley. Men like Cornes, Ebert and Broadbent shoulder an enormous burden as they attempt to restore some confidence to a proud club. The retention of Boak is a positive. The club needed contract speculation like the proverbial cranial cavity.

17. GOLD COAST

We can only hope Ablett’s support cast will shine more brightly in 2013. While Ablett’s move to Gold Coast has done his legend no harm, premierships are now a distant memory for him and an unattainable prospect. Still, he and coach McKenna are doing a great job, and it’s heartening to see the commitment of men like Hunt, Bennell and Stanley. No trophies in sight, but they will look back on this era with pride.

Gary Ablett will sine but will his Suns play support cast? Image: Getty Images

18. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

They should spoon, but have a lot to anticipate. They bowed to no one in their debut season, playing Sheedy-brand attacking football. They will be an asset to the competition – a team to watch