Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs @Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:20pm

Western Bulldogs have only won two of their last five games and need to arrest that poor run of form to get their push for the top eight back on track. A game against the second-place Crows is maybe not ideal, although Adelaide were far from frightening last week in only beating Carlton 89-77.

Adelaide also have a host of injuries, including Kyle Cheney, Mitch McGovern and Alex Keath. Western Bulldogs have there own problems, with Jake Stringer and Roarke Smith on the absent list.

Match Fact: The past eight encounters between these two sides have been split with four wins apiece.

Why Adelaide will win: Adelaide are the highest scoring team in the league, up against a side that have scored just four more points than the Brisbane Lions. With the likes of Eddie Betts (37.18 this season), Taylor Walker (34.21), Josh Jenkins (22.12) and Tom Lynch (20.15 this season), it’s hard to see how the Western Bulldogs could come out on top.

Our Tip: Adelaide by 13.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Greater Western Sydney Giants @University of Tasmania Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

In Hawthorn’s last clash they came out on top against Collingwood winning 118-94. As for GWS they were held to the first draw of the season against Geelong 68-68.

Had GWS converted just one of their eight behinds they would be four points clear at the top of the ladder instead of two. Now only a win will allow them to keep top spot (assuming Adelaide beat the Bulldogs). For Hawthorn they are two wins off eighth spot with eight games remaining and, considering their vastly worse goal difference to that of St Kilda’s, it’s basically three. They need a win here out of pure desperation.

Both Jaeger O’Meara and Grant Birchall (knee) are out for Hawthorn amongst others. While hamstring injuries to Tendai M’Zungu and Nick Haynes mean they will be missing for GWS.

Match Fact: The last time these two teams played each other GWS beat Hawthorn 158-83. Hawthorn will no doubt be looking to turn the tables this time around.

Why Hawthorn will win: Hawthorn has been on a bit of a hot streak lately, winning five of their past eight games. This has helped them start to dream about reaching the top eight. A loss here, though, could end their hopes completely. It will be a cracker to watch.

Our Tip: Hawthorn by one.

Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers @Melbourne Cricket Ground, Saturday 2:10pm

Collingwood put in a disappointing effort in their last start loss to Hawthorn as they went down 118-94. As for Essendon they suffered one of the biggest shocks in recent memory as they went down 90-82 against Brisbane in a match that no one expected the Lions to win.

The Bombers have to bounce back quickly given the fact they are now a couple of wins adrift of St Kilda who occupy eighth place. Collingwood players are likely already thinking about post-season holidays as they languish down in 15th place.

For Collingwood amongst their casualties are Travis Varcoe and Ben Sinclair (both hamstring). While for Essendon on their injured list includes both Mitch Brown and Jayden Laverde (ankle).

Match Fact: The last four clashes between these two teams have resulted in two wins apiece.

Why Essendon will win: Essendon are too good and too talented to let last week’s shock defeat affect them too much. They also highlighted before the loss that they are a formidable squad, most notably when they beat Port Adelaide by 70.

Our Tip: Essendon by 14.

Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns @Sydney Cricket Ground, Saturday 4:35pm

In their last game Sydney continued their four match winning streak by beating Melbourne 85-50. As for the Gold Coast they won at home, beating North Melbourne 118-99.

Despite having won seven of their past eight games, Sydney still sit in ninth position on the ladder due to their horrible 0-6 start to the season. If they win and other results go their way they could break into the top eight. Gold Coast are not totally out of contention for the finals, but that might change if they lose this one.

Among the players out for Sydney include both Alex Johnson and Sam Naismith (knee). Ben Ainsworth (quad), Callum Ah Chee (back) and Sam Day (hip) are missing for the Gold Coast.

Match Fact: The Gold Coast are yet to win a game against Sydney, having lost all of the previous seven games between the two clubs.

Why Sydney will win: The star quality of the men in red and white clearly outclasses that of the Gold Coast, with Lance Franklin, Jake Lloyd and Josh Kennedy all in superb form this season.

Our Tip: Sydney by 15.

 

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats @The Gabba, Saturday 7:25pm

Brisbane will be on a high after their shock 90-82 win over Essendon last weekend. It’s a different story for third-placed Geelong, who had a kick after the siren to beat leaders GWS, but had to settle for a 68-68 draw.

The Cats will want to get over that disappointment and strengthen their place in the top four, while the Lions may have renewed hope of not ending up with the wooden spoon with North Melbourne now in their sights.

On Brisbane’s injury list is Dayne Beams (quad), Allen Christensen (shoulder), Mitch Robinson (foot), Daniel McStay (hand) and Sam Skinner (knee). While on Geelong’s injury list is Lincoln McCarthy (groin), Cory Gregson (foot), Brandan Parfitt (hamstring) and Quinton Narkle (hamstring).

Match Fact: Geelong have won their past six games against Brisbane by an average margin of around 45 points. It should be closer this time around.

Why Geelong will win: Despite their win last week, Brisbane are still the bottom team for a reason. They’ll put in a spirited shift but against such a strong Geelong side the only hope for them is that the scoreline doesn’t get too big.

Our Tip: Geelong by 30.

St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers @Etihad Stadium, Saturday 7:25pm

This is fourth (Tigers) versus eighth (Saints) with only four points separating the two sides – so expect a real battle. And both teams go in on a high after wins against Port Adelaide and Fremantle respectively.

The injury lists could prove vital, with St Kilda relatively healthy given the fact only David Armitage (groin), Tom Hickey (knee) and Josh Battle (knee) are out. Richmond’s on the other hand is a bit longer and reads Shaun Hampson (back), Ben Griffiths (concussion), Reece Conca (foot), Nick Vlastuin (shoulder), Nathan Drummond (knee), Nathan Broad (shoulder) and Jack Graham (ankle).

Match Fact: The last two teams met it was a 55-46 win for St Kilda. Expect a few more goals to be kicked this time around.

Why St Kilda will win: St Kilda lost both the disposals (419-388) and kicks (224-198) category against Fremantle last weekend. Despite that, they still found a way to grind out the win. If they can fix those problems, they will pose a real danger for the Tigers.

Our Tip: St Kilda by nine.

 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Fremantle Dockers @Etihad Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

A clash between two struggling teams, with North Melbourne now in danger of taking the wooden spoon as Brisbane come up fast behind them. The Dockers battled hard last weekend, but still lost 89-80 against St Kilda for their fifth successive defeat.

Those on North Melbourne’s injured list are Sam Wright (ankle), Paul Ahern (knee), Ben McKay (groin/hip), Corey Wagner (ankle) and Oscar Junker (broken tibia). While the Fremantle injury list is a bit bigger and reads Hayden Ballantyne (hamstring), Stephen Hill (hamstring), Zac Clarke (knee), Harley Bennell (calf), Michael Apeness (knee), Alex Pearce (leg) and Matthew Uebergang (mamstring).

Match Fact: This season Fremantle and North Melbourne have played in a combined nine games decided by 10 points or less. Small margins, but big impacts on where the teams sit on the ladder.

Why Fremantle will win: Michael Walters was amazing last weekend for Fremantle as he kicked six goals, got away 21 kicks and had 11 handballs. If he plays anything like that against North Melbourne then the Dockers will be hard to beat.

Our Tip: Fremantle by 12.

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons @Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sunday 3:20pm

Much more for Melbourne to play for in this one as they try to cement their place in the top eight. Carlton are languishing in 16th and know their hopes of reaching the finals have already gone, although they did give high-flying Adelaide a fright before going down 89-77 last weekend.

Melbourne had been on a great run before their 85-50 defeat against Sydney Swans, but will have to respond without injured Max Gawn, Pat McKenna (both Hamstring) and Joel Smith (shoulder). Carlton’s only current injury is with Ciaran Byrne (Knee).

Match Fact: The past six games between these teams have both Carlton and Melbourne with three wins apiece.

Why Melbourne will win: Before Melbourne’s loss last weekend they had won their previous four games in a row. These were a 35 point win over the Gold Coast, a win over Collingwood, a 57 point win over the Western Bulldogs and a win over West Coast.

Our Tip: Melbourne by 20.

West Coast Eagles vs Port Adelaide Power @Domain Stadium, Sunday 2:40pm

Possibly the toughest game of the round to predict with Port Adelaide in fifth and West Coast in seventh ahead of the weekend matches.

Most ominously for Power, last weekend’s 76-63 defeat against Richmond extended their poor run of results against other teams in the top eight. The Eagles, meanwhile, are on an upward trend after beating the Bulldogs 87-80 last time out.

Port Adelaide are at least boosted by having a totally healthy squad to choose from. That’s in contrast to West Coast who have a massive injury toll that reads Drew Petrie (hand), Nic Naitanui (knee), Scott Lycett (shoulder), Jamie Cripps (ankle), Simon Tunbridge (knee), Jackson Nelson (wrist), Kurt Mutimer (knee), Willie Rioli (hamstring), Jack Waterman (foot) and Francis Watson (ankle).

Match Fact: The last three times these teams have played each other the result has been by 10 points or less. Expect this trend to continue into this game.

Why Port Adelaide will win: West Coast are inconsistent and that was highlighted when Melbourne broke a long hoodoo with a victory in Perth. Another jinx could be broken this weekend, with Port Adelaide finally finding a way to beat a team in the top eight.

Our Tip: Port Adelaide by six.