All the latest team news and predictions for this weekend's big games in the AFL.
Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats @Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:20pm
This should without a doubt be one of the games of the season as first placed Adelaide take on second placed Geelong. Both sides will want to show why they are the best and should be considered the favourites to win the Grand Final. Last round both clubs came out on top with Adelaide beating Melbourne by 46 points and Geelong beating Hawthorn by three.
Recent history indicates that this matchup has been fairly one sided with Geelong having beaten Adelaide in four of their past five clashes against them. The last time they played it was a 22-point win to Geelong. Adelaide have all the motivation in the world to change the result up for this one.
Adelaide’s current injuries are Kyle Cheney (Hamstring), Curtly Hampton (Ankle), Cam Ellis-Yolmen (Knee) and Ben Davis (Foot). As for Geelong their injury list is a lot worse and is highlighted by Scott Selwood (Hamstring) and all of Josh Cowan, Cory Gregson and Quinton Narkle who are all out for the season.
Why Geelong will win: Last week against a highly motivated Hawthorn side Geelong lost most of the major categories such as disposals, kicks and clearances yet they still came out on top with a win. If they can fix those up and play a bit stronger than theirs no reason to say why they can’t get the win.
Our Tip: Geelong by three.
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @Etihad Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm
Last week Essendon smashed fellow top eight hopefuls St Kilda 118-57 in what did no harm to their finals chances. North Melbourne on the other hand were pretty much no shows as they got pummelled by Port Adelaide 127-57. For a side in a restless pursuit of making the finals they haven’t really shown it (have won five of their past ten games) and as a result of this look for Essendon to really take a stand during this clash.
Six of the past seven games between these two teams have been won by North Melbourne. The last one being a 74-60 win their way. In that game Essendon were kept to only eight majors. Look for their offence to be a lot stronger this time around.
Essendon’s only current injuries are with Mitch Brown (Ankle) and Patrick Ambrose (Quad). As for North Melbourne their injury list is a lot bigger and is highlighted through the likes of Jarrad Waite (Calf) and Jamie Macmillan (Finger), while Paul Ahern is also out for the season (Knee).
Why Essendon will win: Essendon currently have a 108.50% that is led by the likes of Joe Daniher (45.26), Orazio Fantasia (32.19) and Cale Hooker (27.15). Against a North’s defence that isn’t known for anything special they should be able to run up a big score.
Our Tip: Essendon by 40.
Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power @Melbourne Cricket Ground, Saturday 2:10pm
Both Melbourne (nine wins from 16 games) and Port Adelaide (have only beaten a team in the top eight once this season) have had relatively inconsistent years yet they’re both in the eight and fighting to secure a spot in the top four. Melbourne can be some-what excused for their lacklustre 46-point loss last week as they were playing first placed Adelaide and had a tonne of injuries to deal with. Port Adelaide in their game were on cruise-control making it look easy as they beat North Melbourne by 70.
The recent history between these sides is all in Port Adelaide’s favour as they have won seven of their past nine clashes against Melbourne. But the last game between these two sides was actually a 40-point victory to Melbourne - in which Port Adelaide only kicked a pathetic eight majors to go along with six behinds. Port Adelaide’s attack has rapidly improved since then and that will be on full display Saturday afternoon.
Port Adelaide at the moment have no injuries to deal with, while for Melbourne on their injured list are a massive nine players. This is headlined by Colin Garland who is out for the season with a Knee Injury along with the likes of Jack Viney (Foot) and Pat McKenna (Hamstring).
Why Port Adelaide will win: This season they have scored 100 or more points in a game eight times while Melbourne have been kept to under 100 points nine times. This will be a close game but Port Adelaide’s attack should get them over the edge.
Our Tip: Port Adelaide by 10.
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns @ Cazaly’s Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm
For the Western Bulldogs this season has been nothing but bitter disappointment. They have won only eight of 16 games, sit in 11th place and their finals hopes look bleak. They did beat Carlton 82-62 last week but that will have done little to lift the moodin their camp heading into this season-defining game. As for the Gold Coast they’ve done as well as they can with their massive injury list, sitting in 15th position. Last round they went down to Collingwood 103-88.
Seven of the past nine games between the Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast Suns have resulted in victories to last years Premiership winners. Up in Cairns with both teams relatively even this season it’s tough to see who could come out the winner here.
For the Western Bulldogs out for them, among others, are Robert Murphy (Hamstring) and Tom Boyd (Mental Illness), as well as both Lin Jong and Roarke Smith with season-ending injuries. For the Gold Coast, Gary Ablett (Hamstring) headlines their injured list.
Why the Gold Coast will win: The Western Bulldogs as previously mentioned have been poor this season winning only two of their past six games. While the Gold Coast haven’t been that much better there have been some highlights for them fairly recently, including a win over West Coast. With most of their players back on board the Gold Coast should slowly start to gather some momentum.
Our Tip: Gold Coast by five.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks @Domain Stadium, Saturday 5:40pm
Last round Fremantle lost 74-44 to West Coast in a disappointing result. Hawthorn’s game was a lot closer but just like Fremantle they still lost, going down 88-85. These two sides sit 12th and 13th on the ladder respectively and are no longer playing for finals but more pride and respect. Extremely worrying for both teams given where many tipped them to be at the start of the season.
Nine of the past ten clashes between these two sides have been won by Alistair Clarkson’s men. The last time these two teams suited up against each other, Hawthorn won with ease 17.14.116 to 11.9.75. A win here for Hawthorn would do little to fix their disaster of a season, at least Fremantle can use the ‘youth’ excuse.
Among Fremantle’s injured are Aaron Sandilands, who is out for the season with a hamstring injury, and Michael Apeness, who is also out for the year with a knee injury. For Hawthorn ten players are currently on their injured list. That is headlined by Cyril Rioli (PCL) and Jonathan O’Rourke (Hamstring).
Why Hawthorn will win: Nine out of ten is massive for any club. That history and pure dominance should be enough to get them the win in what will be a pretty ordinary game.
Our Tip: Hawthorn by 11.
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints @Sydney Cricket Ground, Saturday 7:25pm
Last round Sydney continued their charge up the ladder with a well-deserved 13-point victory over Greater Western Sydney. As for St Kilda, a week after teaching Richmond how to play, they were given a strong lesson by Essendon, going down by 61. Sydney sit in 6th place while St Kilda 9th. Both sides have nine wins and it’s all set up to be a very tight game.
Sydney has won their past eight games in a row against St Kilda. Combined with this the last game they played, Sydney romped St Kilda by 50 in a simply dominating performance. St Kilda should be able to show more mettle and resolve this time around.
Sydney’s current injuries are with Kurt Tippett (Ankle), Harry Cunningham (Foot), Will Hayward (Foot) and Dary Cameron (Shoulder). While St Kilda’s current injuries are with David Armitage (Groin), Darren Minchington (Ankle), Hugh Goddard (Foot), Paddy McCartin (Concussion) and Nick Coughlan (Hamstring).
Why Sydney will win: Everything points to a Sydney win here. Whether it be ladder position or attacking options. Defensively for the latter part of the season Sydney have been pretty sound as well. The most important factor however is form as Sydney has won nine of their past ten games. When this game is over it will be ten of eleven.
Our Tip: Sydney by seven.
Richmond Tigers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants @Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sunday 1:10pm
Richmond bounced back from their embarrassing performance two weeks ago to beat Brisbane easily by a score of 112-81. As for GWS they let an opportunity to stay in the top two slip as the lost to rivals Sydney 96-83. A win for Richmond potentially moves them into the top four while a GWS win could potentially propel them into the top two again.
The last four clashes between these two sides have been split with two wins apiece. The last game played between these two sides is especially indicative of this as GWS escaped with a 78-75 win back in Round 9 of this season.
Both sides have big injury tolls. Richmond’s is Steven Morris (Hamstring), Shaun Hampson (Back), Ben Griffiths (Concussion), Reece Conca (Foot), Ben Lennon (Hamstring) and Nathan Drummond (Knee). GWS currently have fourteen players out through injury. This list is highlighted by Toby Greene (Ankle), Steve Johnson (Knee) and Zac Williams (Hamstring).
Why Richmond will win: GWS’s form has been very poor lately with two draws and a loss from their past three games. Combined with their horror injury toll and Richmond having looked like they’ve bounced back from their horror show two weeks ago against St Kilda they should get an easy win.
Our Tip: Richmond by 20.
Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles @Etihad Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm
Last round the game was close for most of it before Collingwood pulled away late for a 103-88 victory over the Gold Coast. As for West Coast they beat Fremantle 74-44 in a low scoring affair. For West Coast the equation is very simple, win and you stay in the top eight for another week but lose and you’re at risk of falling out of it.
Recent history is close between these two teams with three wins each from their past six encounters against each other. The most recent game was a 13.13.91 vs 11.6.72 Collingwood win. Will history repeat itself or will West Coast get a much needed win?
Collingwood’s injuries are currently highlighted by Daniel Wells (Calf) and Ben Sinclair (Hamstring). As for West Coast among others on the sidelines are Josh J. Kennedy (Calf), Nic Naitanui (Knee) and Sam Butler (Hamstring).
Why Collingwood will win: Collingwood are averaging 106 marks per game while West Coast 99. Being able to convert those could be the difference in a close game.
Our Tip: Collingwood by four.
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues @ The Gabba, Sunday 4:40pm
Brisbane went down by 31 last round against Richmond while Carlton were only slightly better going down by 20 against the Western Bulldogs. Both sides have had poor seasons this year and a win would at least give either team a glimmer of hope heading into next season. The stakes here are especially important for Brisbane as a win would get them equal with North Melbourne on four in a desperate attempt to avoid finishing in last place. This could quite literally be Brisbane’s biggest game of the season.
Brisbane has won four of their past five against Carlton. This includes their last game which was a tight 99-95 Brisbane win. We‘ll be seeing more of that this time around. Expect both teams to put on a show for the fans despite their lowly positions.
Brisbane’s injuries are Allen Christensen (Shoulder), Ryan Harwood (Foot), Mitch Robinson (Foot), Tom Bell (Ankle) and Darcy Gardiner (Elbow). For Carlton they are Sam Rowe (Knee), Alex Silvagni (Knee), Andrew Phillips (Foot), Caleb Marchbank (Shoulder) and Tom Williamson (Back).
Why Brisbane will win: As the history shows they know very well how to beat Carlton. But it’s more so their pure desperation combined with their care for their fans that means they’ll be hell-bent on winning this battle. They won’t want to finish last, it’s as simple as that.
Our Tip: Brisbane by two.
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