The NRL finals are here! We take a look at what will and won't happen this weekend.
Game One: Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (3rd) @Allianz Stadium, Friday 7:55pm
Stat Fact: The last time these two teams met was back in Round 13. That day it was a two-point (18-16) victory to Sydney.
Can we expect to see a similar margin this time around?
Big Talking Point: Brisbane fullback Darius Boyd will miss this encounter as a result of a hamstring injury. Boyd has had a poor hamstring ever since 2015 when he snapped his achilles. This is a massive blow to a Brisbane side still attempting to fully re-coup after their beating at the hands of Parramatta only two rounds ago. This season for Brisbane Boyd has scored three tries while assisting a further seven in a strong attacking outfit. His skills and leadership will be sorely missed out on the field. But no doubt Boyd would have been involved in some capacity this week in the lead-up to the game in the Broncos camp, being the class team mate and person that he is.
What Will Happen: Last round in Brisbane’s 20-10 victory over North Queensland both Matt Gillett (opened the scoring) and Adam Blair got on the scoreboard. This has been a consistent recent trend for Brisbane. Brisbane’s forwards as powerful as they are, have some of the skills that backs poses. Expect Brisbane’s forward pack to continue with this trend and score two or three between them in an attempt to lead Brisbane to the final game before the Big Dance. They should have a huge say on the outcome of this game both attacking and go-forward wise.
What Won’t Happen: A lack of penalties. Both of these sides are widely regarded among fans as some of the clubs that get the most penalties given to them in the League. Both sides seem to have a certain favouritism with the referees whenever they play. Expect a stop-start type of clash to occur.
Our Tip: (A repeat of the last margin, just switched around) Brisbane by two.
Game Two: Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (4th) @AAMI Park, Saturday 4:10pm
Stat Fact: 2011- Storm 38 vs Eels zero, 2013- Storm 64 vs Eels four and 2014- Storm 46 vs Eels 20.
Will Melbourne wipe the floor with them yet again or will Parramatta do something about their recent dominance over them?
Big Talking Point: Parramatta are into the finals for the first time since their magical run to the 2009 Grand Final. That team was led by then superstar player Jarryd Hayne as well as names that everyone will remember such as Nathan Hindmarsh and Fuifui Moimoi. Now this Blue & Gold team is led by some slightly different players such as Semi Radradra (20 tries) and both Corey Norman and Mitchell Moses (19 combined try assists as well as seven tries). Not only is this their first finals appearance since that magical year but it is their first Top Four berth since the 2005 season. Parramatta will have the same aim as that of the 2009 team, to go as far as possible. Who better to face them first up then the team that unfairly beat them for the 2009 NRL Premiership.
What Will Happen: Parramatta can either A keep the game close with their severely underrated defence or B Melbourne will pull another huge victory out of their team full of superstars and discards. Option A is the more likely one as despite Melbourne racking up some huge scores over Parramatta in the past, the Blue & Gold’s defence is both strong and resolute. This season Parramatta have kept North Queensland to six points, Melbourne to six, Canterbury to four and the Gold Coast to eight. Option A will see the likes of Tepai Moeroa and Nathan Brown continue to do what they have done all season in a great defensive side. Combined with option A occurring, it should also be a low-scoring affair.
What Won’t Happen: Semi Radradra scoring more than a singular try. He shouldn’t be able to crack more than one due to their notorious defence (one that Parramatta coach Brad Arthur fired shots at). If Semi can bag two or more, a shock win could be on the cards for the Blue & Gold. This however shouldn’t happen despite his try-scoring heroics this year.
Our Tip: Melbourne by a score of either eight-four or 12-four.
Game Three: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (8th) @Allianz Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm
Stat Fact: These two teams met last round resulting in a 28-12 win to Manly. However before that Penrith won their past six games against Manly.
Which Penrith will come out to play? The pussy-cats of last week or the teams of seasons past?
Big Talking Point: Trent Barrett (Previously un-tried as a head NRL coach), Dylan Walker (released from South Sydney), Akuila Uate (Newcastle are still paying part of his contract) and Curtis Sironen (un-wanted by the Tigers). These men headline an inspiring team that have come together under immense salary-cap pressure as well as degrading and un-true rumours to defy the odds and make the playoffs. To top of what has already been an encouraging season for Manly they put in arguably their best performance of the season last week where they led Penrith 28-0 after 75 minutes before fatigue and tiredness eventually set in and they won 28-12. Penrith meanwhile also deserve to be playing after the end of the regular season as a mid-season winning streak catapulted them into the Top Eight.
Matt Moylan for Penrith unfortunately will miss this game due to what has been described as personal problems. Moylan is rumoured to have been wanting out of Penrith and as well as this game is expected to miss the rest of Penrith’s finals campaign should they advance past Manly. Moylan on Monday afternoon had an extensive meeting with Phil Gould that led to this decision. He is an incredibly talented player and I wish him a quick and speedy recovery.
What Will Happen: A Tom Trbojevic and DCE master class. Tommy T for the season has 12 tries along with 18 try assists. This while DCE kicked two clutch field-goals only two games ago to snare a one-point win over the Warriors. These two players have been instrumental in Manly’s rise from the bottom this season and will no doubt continue their strong form in this encounter and show why they are so highly valued and payed.
What Won’t Happen: A repeat of last week’s performance. Penrith have been on record as saying they are happy that Manly are their opponents this weekend as it gives them an opportunity to avenge last week’s defeat. Despite the Matt Moylan saga undoubtedly affecting the club, expect them to put in a better shift this around.
Our Tip: Manly by 10.
Game Four: Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) @Allianz Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm
Stat Fact: The last finals match between these two teams was last season. It was a 32-20 victory to Cronulla that put them through to the Grand Final.
Will revenge be on North Queensland’s mind?
Big Talking Point: Despite being ravaged by injuries all season and having only won one of their past six, the Cowboys have miraculously escaped into eighth spot on the competition ladder. It wasn’t all that easy though as for a day every Cowboys supporter became a Canterbury supporter as thanks to their victory over St George, North Queensland officially secured a finals berth. There might be no Johnathan Thurston, or no Matt Scott but there is a tonne of belief within the side and they are not just here to make up the numbers, they are here to play a tough style of footy.
What Will Happen: A Cronulla win. Neil Henry has a better chance of winning coach of the year than North Queensland do of wining this game such is the dire state of the club at the moment with their large amount of injuries including their proven match-winner in Thurston. It won’t be easy though given that in their majority of games this season North Queensland have played a hard brand of footy, making their opponents really fight for the competition points rather than just getting them on a platter. However, despite all of this, you can still expect Cronulla to be advancing to the second week of the finals.
What Won’t Happen: North Queensland making their away record a win better. This season away from 1300SMILES Stadium they have won only seven of 12, a poor record for a side in the finals. Unfortunately for this very resilient side, their season ends here. But credit to them for making it this far to begin with given what they have gone through as a team as well as for many of the individual playing members within the side.
Our Tip: Cronulla by 12 (Expect an 18-6 score-line or something similar).
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