Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Friday, 7:50pm

A win for Melbourne would give them a massive boost in their pursuit of second spot on the competition ladder. But a win for Sydney would move them into a finals position, so a lot is on the line during this game.

In the last round, Melbourne escaped Perth with a hard-fought, well-deserved 99-96 win. Sydney in their last game were trailing by 19 with 10 minutes to go against Essendon before storming back to win 86-85 in a result that saw them temporarily move inside the Top Eight for the first time this season.

Amongst the injuries for Melbourne are Jake Spencer who has a shoulder problem and Pat McKenna who is nursing a hamstring strain. For Sydney those on the injured list include Alex Johnson and Sam Naismith (both knee).

Why Sydney will win: There are two major factors that should greatly contribute to a Sydney win on Friday night. First is Sydney’s dominating past history against Melbourne as they have won their past five clashes against them. Secondly, Sydney have made a habit of winning close games - last week it was against Essendon by one and the week before it was against Richmond by nine. This should be a tight affair and Sydney have shown recently that they’re more than capable of closing those out.

Our Tip: Sydney by six.

 

Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles at Etihad Stadium, Saturday, 1:25pm

Only a win separates these two teams this season. The Western Bulldogs will be looking to leapfrog St Kilda into the Top Eight while West Coast will be looking to push their way closer to the Top Four.

In their last game the Western Bulldogs won a close one against North Melbourne 107-106. But given the difference between the two teams in terms of ladder position, talent and otherwise it should have never have been that tight. West Coast were pipped 99-96 by Melbourne in Perth.

For the Western Bulldogs, Travis Cloke is battling a rib injury, Dale Morris has a leg injury and Brad Lynch is dealing with a hamstring strain. West Coast’s injury list includes Drew Petrie (hand), Nic Naitanui (knee) and Jamie Cripps (ankle).

Why West Coast will win: Last week against Melbourne they kicked a fairly sizeable 12 behinds. With goal scorers like Josh Kennedy (34 this season), Jack Darling (21) and Mark LeCras (17) on their team they shouldn’t be kicking inaccurately for too long and, in what should be a close clash, the goal kicking will be the difference.

Our Tip: West Coast by four.

 

Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows at Melbourne Cricket Ground. Saturday, 2:10pm

Adelaide will be aiming to bounce back from a shock defeat at home to Hawthorn and remain in the top two and should fancy their chances against a Carlton side that went down to Richmond by 26 points last time out.

Carlton’s only concern is with Ciaran Byrne who has a knee injury.  As for Adelaide their injury list is a little worse with the likes of Kyle Cheney and Alex Keath battling hamstring injuries.

Why Adelaide will win: There is too much incentive for them to slip up again. The Crows have shown all season that they can smash opponents - including wins by 65 against Essendon, by 67 against Gold Coast, by 76 against Richmond, by 80 against Brisbane, by 100 against Fremantle and by 57 against St Kilda. This shouldn’t and won’t be close.

Our Tip: Adelaide by 25.

 

Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos at Metricon Stadium, Saturday, 4:35pm

Suns star Gary Ablett is expected to play his 300th game this weekend and recent history suggests this could be a tight one, with Gold Coast and the Kangaroos sharing three wins apiece in their last six clashes. And they are both languishing near the foot of the ladder with finals football unlikely.

Gold Coast are coming off a 103-72 defeat against St Kilda, while North Melbourne will at least be buoyed by a valiant effort against Western Bulldogs last time out – even though they ultimately went down 107-106.

Gold Coast’s injury list includes Michael Rischitelli (knee injury) and Callum Ah Chee (back injury). Whilst for North Melbourne it features Sam Wright (ankle injury) and Ben McKay (groin/hip problems).

Why Gold Coast will win: Defence will most likely win this game as both teams regularly struggle to put points on the board. Players like Garry Ablett lead the way for Gold Coast in this regard averaging six tackles per game. As long as the Gold Coast’s defence can be stingy enough to not allow too many goals, then they should get the win.

Our Tip: Gold Coast by three.

 

Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers at Adelaide Oval, Saturday, 7:10pm

Fourth versus sixth on the ladder means this is a massive clash for both sides. Port Adelaide will be hoping to keep up the pressure on the three sides above them, while Richmond are desperate for a win to maintain some breathing space to the clubs below chasing a place in the top eight.

Last round Port Adelaide won with relative ease beating Collingwood by 31. Richmond go into this one on the back of a 26-point win over Carlton. The past five games between these two clubs have resulted in three wins to Port Adelaide and two to Richmond.

Port Adelaide will be boosted by the fact they have no major injury worries, but Richmond have Nick Vlastuin and Nathan Broad currently battling shoulder injuries, while Shaun Hampson is out with a back problem.

Why Richmond will win: Dustin Martin. Not a lot separates these two teams and that’s why it comes down to game winners, someone who will win it for you and know what has to be done.

Our Tip: Richmond by six.

 

Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Geelong Cats at Spotless Stadium. Saturday, 7:25pm

It’s first plays third in what could turn out to be one of the games of the season. Geelong will go level with current leaders GWS if they can get the win in New South Wales.

Last round Greater Western Sydney showed no mercy as they easily beat rock-bottom Brisbane by 60 in what was purely a training run for them. As for Geelong, they were made to work a lot harder in securing a 74-72 victory over Fremantle.

Expect a high-scoring affair, given the fact that both sides have three players in the top 20 for goals scored this season. For Greater Western Sydney, Jeremy Cameron (39), Toby Greene (30) and Johnathan Patton (22) have been on fire. While Geelong’s Tom Hawkins (31), Daniel Menzel (30) and Patrick Dangerfield (23) also make the list.

Brett Deledio has a calf injury for GWS, while Nick Haynes is struggling with a hamstring strain. Geelong’s injury list includes Corey Gregson (foot) and Lincoln McCarthy (groin).

Why Greater Western Sydney will win: This year against good teams Greater Western Sydney have performed exceedingly well including a 31 point win vs Port Adelaide, a 42 point win vs Sydney, a two point win vs Western Bulldogs, a three point win vs Richmond and an eight point win vs West Coast. Geelong will do well to avoid becoming another victim.

Our Tip: Greater Western Sydney by seven.

 

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium, Sunday, 1:10pm

In their last start Essendon suffered a heart-breaking one point loss to Sydney at the SGC. As for Brisbane they gave barely any competition to Greater Western Sydney at all going down 146-86.

Essendon, currently in 11th, badly need a win to keep up their chase of a top eight finish, especially after suffering three defeats in their last five games. Brisbane look doomed to the wooden spoon, unless something dramatic happens in the run-in.

Both clubs currently have a number of different players suffering from a variety of different injury issues. For Essendon it includes Mitch Brown (ankle injury) and Patrick Ambrose (quad injury). While for Brisbane it includes Mitch Robinson (foot injury) and Sam Skinner (knee injury).

Why Brisbane will win: Given the fact the Lions still have to face a lot of the teams in the top eight, a clash against Essendon could be one they target as much more winnable. Having said that, it would still be a big shock!

Our Tip: Brisbane by one.

 

Fremantle Dockers vs St Kilda Saints at Domain Stadium, Sunday, 2:40pm

The Saints have won two on the trot, including a 103-72 victory over Gold Coast last time out, to keep them firmly in contention for a place in the finals. Fremantle are going in the other direction, though, with their 74-72 defeat against Geelong their fourth in succession to leave them down in 12th position.

Fremantle’s injury woes currently include Hayden Ballantyne (hamstring) and Mitchell Apeness (knee). While for St Kilda their only injuries are David Armitage (groin), and Tom Hickey and Josh Battle (both knee).

Why Fremantle will win: Nate Fyfe. He’s amongst the most influential players in the game and if he plays he could easily have St Kilda on a string. Even though he has missed games due to injury this season, when he plays everybody fears him.

Our Tip: Fremantle by 10.

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sunday, 3:20pm

Hawthorn will still be on a high for their stunning 14-point win over Adelaide, even though they are still struggling in 16th place in the ladder. Collingwood were beaten easily by Port Adelaide in their last game and another defeat could be the nail in their hopes of making the top eight.

Hawthorn have recent history on their side in terms of this match-up, with four wins from the last five, although Collingwood won the most recent clash back in round nine when they downed the Hawks 90-72.

Hawthorn will be without Teia Miles (medial ligament) and Jonathon Ceglar (ACL), while Collingwood’s injury list includes Rupert Wills (calf) and Ben Sinclair and Travis Varcoe (both hamstring).

Why Hawthorn will win: There are arguably two Hawthorn sides this season. The one from last week and the one from the rest of the season. If the one from last week turns up, then Collingwood might be in trouble, given the fact the Hawks beat one of the top sides in what was a complete performance.

Our Tip: Hawthorn by nine.